Never Say Never

The headlines from the Los Angeles Business Journal read:

Will L.A. home prices ever head up? Yes, but foreclosures, demographics will make it a slow march.

The article continued:

After a wrenching 6-year decline, the good news is that Los Angeles house prices are no longer in a tailspin.

“People always ask me, ‘When will I see my house worth what it was in 1989?’ I tell them, ‘It’s going to be awhile,’” said Fred Sands, president of Fred Sands Realtors.

In L.A. County overall, home prices have fallen around 30% since 1990.

Yes, folks, this was published in 1996, over 15 years ago. Did prices ever go back up to what they were in 1989? They were at a median price of $215,000 then for Los Angeles County. According to the Los Angeles Almanac, the median returned to the $215,000 number in 2000, so it took eleven years to complete that cycle.

What are they now? According to Dataquick, the comprehensive real estate database, the median price in March, 2011 was $320,000, a 43% drop from the highest median price in Los Angeles County history in 2006 when it reached $584,800. When will we complete this cycle? No one knows, but please, never say never.